Now that we know the value of winning and the cost to pursue we just need to figure out our chances of winning
Chances of winning: Estimating the chances of winning is an art, and good proposal managers make a lot of money in part because they can do this incredibly well, however doing this well requires tremendous industry knowledge and experience, so assuming we don’t have that let’s just estimate that you have a 10% chance of winning. Arbitrary I know, but probably a good guess.
Now to compute:
1) Take the value of winning
2) Multiply it by 10%
3) See if that number is higher than the cost to build the proposal
If the VALUE IS MUCH HIGHER then go after this proposal barring some X-factor
If the VALUE IS MUCH LOWER then probably DON’T go after this proposal
If the VALUE IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE COST then it’s up to you, but if in doubt I’d err on the side of going for it
More mature P-Win processes: This is a rough method for computing P-Win. But, I think it will get you to the right answer for your first couple of years. However, once you’ve developed a strong awareness of your customer and market then you will want to use more advanced techniques that we will introduce in later classes.